Re-Lease or Sell? What Are the Numbers Really Saying Right Now?

If your tenant might not renew, is it better to re-lease your property or sell while the market is still strong?

If you own a rental property and a tenant has recently signaled they may not renew, it is natural to pause and reassess. The market has not shifted dramatically, but it has changed in ways that matter. The difference today is not about panic. It is about understanding where the numbers are pointing and what they mean for your next decision.

Recently, at the AcceleRATE Summit, housing and mortgage data presented by Barry Habib, founder of MBS Highway, highlighted several trends that property owners should be aware of, especially when facing a potential vacancy.

Renewals Are Performing Better Than New Leases

One of the most important shifts is happening within the rental market itself.

Today, about 53% of leases nationwide are renewals, while 47% are new leases. On the surface, that split seems balanced. But the pricing tells a deeper story:

• Renewal rents are increasing by roughly 3%

• New lease rents are decreasing by about 1.3%

• Overall blended rent growth is around 1%

This matters because once a tenant leaves, your property moves into the new lease category, not the renewal category.

This is where pricing pressure tends to appear first.

In addition, many landlords are now covering broker fees on new leases. This adds another cost layer that did not always exist before. The result is that re-leasing a vacant unit may produce lower returns and higher upfront expenses compared to simply renewing an existing tenant.

Home Value Growth Is Still Positive, but Slower

Property values are still rising, but not at the same pace as before.

• Home values increased about 5% nationally in 2025

• Forecasts suggest growth closer to 3.5% in 2026

  
  

This is still healthy appreciation. However, it signals a transition. The rapid equity gains seen in recent years are giving way to steadier, more moderate growth. This makes timing more important than it was during the peak growth period.

For property owners, this creates a window where values remain strong, but future gains may be more gradual.

Financing Conditions Are Becoming More Stable

Another important development is the outlook for interest rates. Forecasts presented at the summit point to:

• The 10-year Treasury stabilizing near 3.8%

• Mortgage rates expected in the 5.5% to 5.875% range

While these rates are not historically low, the stability itself is significant. Predictability helps buyers return to the market with more confidence. This supports demand, which in turn supports property values.

A Non-Renewal Creates a Natural Decision Point

When a tenant chooses not to renew, it creates a moment of clarity. At that point, there are two clear paths:

• Re-lease the property and navigate the realities of the current new lease market

• Sell while property values remain strong and buyer demand continues to rebuild

Neither path is automatically better. The right choice depends on your property, your financial goals, and your tolerance for vacancy, leasing costs, and longer-term appreciation timelines.

What matters most is making the decision proactively rather than reactively.